Bitcoin got its macro reprieve. The alts and the crowd stayed home.

Issue 04 leaned on one line: cheap valuation doesn't get to matter while higher-for-longer and a rising dollar are both true. That was the vise. This week it cracked. Fed Chair Warsh said on Jul 1 that inflation risks had come down, a soft June jobs report landed the next morning, and Bitcoin ripped from a fresh 21-month low back over $61,000. Cycle IQ jumped with it. What didn't move is everything else, and that's the memo.

The Read

• Cycle IQ 49.5 (Accumulation) as of Jul 5, up 13.1 on the week. Bottomed near 35 on Jul 2, then snapped back on the macro turn.
• Altcoin IQ 32.4 (Accumulation) as of Jul 5, down 5.4. Kept falling straight through Bitcoin's rally.
• Attention IQ 19.4 (Compressed) as of Jul 5, down 4.2. Fewer people watching at the bounce than during the washout.
• Verdict: a Bitcoin-only, macro-driven relief bounce with no breadth and no crowd behind it. Not a demand turn.

The bounce is macro, and it's thin